One of the most common questions we receive on social media is how we on the Hall of Fame Bets team do our research when it comes to betting sports and putting parlays together. Today, I will take you through a step-by-step process that I use daily when putting together parlays.
Over the course of this article, I will explain just how important the software we have within our app is to my process and how it allows me to get a leg up on the books when I am placing bets.
Overview
At the center of all my bets, one of the key aspects I am looking for is edge. When there is a statistical discrepancy between how a player is performing and what a sportsbook is offering their line at, you can find an edge. For example, take this line for an upcoming game between the Chicago White Sox and the Saint Louis Cardinals.
Through my parlay research, I discovered that Luis Robert Jr. is hitting home runs at a higher rate than what the odds the books are offering for him. The sportsbook is offering odds of +425 for him to hit a homer, which would give him an implied probability of 19.05%. Meanwhile, we can see that he has hit one in 27% of his games this year, which should give him odds of +274 for this line.
In my research process, I look for lines such as this that should be offering more value than what the books are offering, while taking into account a number of different factors, powered by the massive amount of data and filtering available on the Hall of Fame Bets platform. The best part is this entire process, including researching player props, is done sitting at a desk using my phone, captured all in the HOFBets app.
To break down my process into a series of steps:
- Using the Trends page on the HOFBets app, research player props and game lines that have high edge
- Examine the same lines on the Stats page to validate if there are any other factors I should be considering (does this player perform worse away from home? Are they on a hot streak right now?)
- Utilizing the Parlay Optimizer, check how these lines perform in conjunction with each other and if there are any more factors I should consider
- Go to my sportsbook and watch the profit roll in.
Without further ado, let’s break down each of these steps.
Researching Player Props and Game Lines Using the Trends Page
The first thing I do when I fire up the app to find my plays for the day is head to the Trends page. This page makes the research process considerably easier as it brings some of the plays I should be considering straight to me, rather than needing to endlessly search around trying to find the lines myself.
Firing up the page, your screen will look much like this:
Right away, you can see there are some great lines on the day, offering immense value. By default, the page will load up showing you trends over the last five games. This can be a great way to piece together parlays that are focusing on the hottest players in the game right now. This strategy, which relies heavily on player prop research, can bring you a lot of success when players or teams go on a hot streak.
As part of my parlay research, I usually make a few adjustments to bring the lines that I want to examine.
First, I change the filter to show the entire season’s worth of data. I feel that this brings me a more complete picture of any lines I am looking for, though I usually do look at how these lines are faring recently to make sure I am catching a player on the upswing rather than the downswing.
Next, I add in filtering that shows me lines being offered by either DraftKings or FanDuel. These are the two primary books I place bets through, so it makes my job simpler looking through a smaller amount of data.
At times, I will always filter to only show Over lines as it is typically more enjoyable for me to cheer on people rather than cheering against them, but this again is directly out of preference.
Following all of these adjustments, my starting point usually looks a lot more like this.
From here, I will typically scroll through until I find lines I like, or when I am placing a same game parlay, I will even filter further, looking for just one game. For example, let’s filter again, just looking at tonight’s Saint Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox matchup.
Immediately it pops out to me that Jordan Walker is looking like a great pick with a full 15% edge on his line. Clicking his odds button automatically adds him to my betting slip on the Parlay Optimizer, so I can come back to it later.
Now, I would head over to the Stats Page to check out some more information behind his line. If you click on the Player’s name, it will direct you straight to his page, with the bet you were looking for already preloaded.
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Examining Player Props Using the Stats Page
Now that I have a line I like, I typically will go through and see if there are any other factors going for or against that player. Looking through various filters, I immediately see by checking the tab at the bottom that Walker performs better at home and particularly when facing off against right-handed pitchers.
These pieces of information give me additional confidence that this is a high-value line, meaning that this will be the core of what I am looking for.
From here, I would typically either return to the Trends page, or if it is a team I am more familiar with, I go straight to the Stats page of another player on the team. In this case, I know that Jordan Montgomery is starting for the Cardinals tonight, so I will look at his stats.
Looking at his strikeout line, we can actually see that he too has a good edge on his line. He hits his over in 59% of his games, so this too would be a good play. However, a strategy I love when placing same game parlays is looking at alternate lines to see if there is perhaps a better play that will reduce the additional risk I am taking on by having multiple lines.
Looking at DraftKings, we can see that Montgomery has an alternate line of 5+ strikeouts that is priced at -175. However, when changing this on his stats page, you can see that he has hit this line in 71% of games, meaning that his odds should be closer to -240.
Applying the same filters as before, you can see that he performs even better at home, increasing his hit rate on this line to 78%, meaning that his implied odds are closer to -350. I think we found our parlay!
From here, I click add to betslip and go to the Parlay Optimizer to finalize my parlays and picks and see if this bet lines up as well as I think it will.
Using the Parlay Optimizer to Lock in Same Game Parlays
Placing the following picks into the Parlay Optimizer and calculating results, we see that this Parlay hits at a fantastic rate of -350!
Hitting in 77.8% of their games together this year, I am highly confident that this is a great bet, especially when I am getting it on DraftKings for a price of +135.
While on this page, I typically will conduct some due diligence, checking to see how this bet has performed over the various time frames, how it does at home, and all other things one would want to consider.
Checking those various factors, you can see that it has hit in 100% of the last 20, 10, and 5 games, and has hit in every road game so far. With numbers like these, you have to feel more confident.
Placing the Parlay and Seeing the Profit
The final step in researching same game parlays is the easiest and most rewarding. There are few better feelings than winning a bet, but placing a bet you are abundantly confident has such great value has to be close to it. From here, I would go to my preferred book, place the bet, and tune in to watch the results come to life as the game roars on.
Thanks for reading through this extensive guide and I hope that this will help inform you best on how to use our platform. If you are interested in seeing more content like this, make sure to share this post and continue to check in on our socials as we are always creating new content to help inform our users on how to bet smarter.
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All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
