Nearly every day, the HOFBets team receives questions on the best ways to use our powerful software to find the best MLB predictions, picks, and parlays. Today, we will go through and give you a foolproof process that our team uses daily to find the best plays.
Throughout this article, I will highlight particular parts of our platform that are essential to this process and how I use it to get an advantage in my betting game.
Overview
Don’t have all the time in the world to stay up to date on everything MLB? Neither do I! Whether or not you are a die-hard MLB fan that watches every single-game and devours box scores or someone who watches one game a season, being informed is paramount to being successful betting on baseball.
Luckily, the HOFBets App can help you bridge the gap between all of the data and what you need to know, using the Leaders page.
Opening the app to Leaders will bring you just what you need, consolidated and customizable insights for all the players in the league. Want to see who are the best hitters in the league? We got you.
Maybe you’re looking for pitchers? Here are the strikeout leaders in the league.
Using filters like this and a few other tips and tricks, I am able to find a list of plays that I love each and every day.
To break down my process into a series of steps, here is how I use the HOFBets app for finding parlays and picks:
- Using the Leaders page on the HOFBets app, research player props that are trending well and could have potential value
- Examine the same lines on the Stats page to validate if there are any other factors I should be considering
- Utilizing the Parlay Optimizer check how these lines perform in conjunction with each other see if it makes sense to play any together
- Go to my sportsbook app and plug in what I like the most.
Researching MLB Player Props on Leaders
MLB can be a tricky sport when it comes to betting, but a fun one when you do it right. Each type of player prop can have its own factors to consider, so I will break down the two I look at the most:
- Batter Hits
- Pitcher Strikeouts
Researching Hitting Props
Starting off with the batters, the things I am most interested in are year-long performance, recent performance, and pitching matchup. The best thing is, you can look at all three of those on one screen. Let’s go back to our hitting leaders listed early, but this time, let’s look at the last 20 games.
If there are familiar names between the season-long performance and recent performance, that should be a great sign: this player has been great all season and they have been streaking well lately. Comparing those two images, I would consider these few batters the most:
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Corey Seager
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Cody Bellinger
Both Acuna and Seager are listed on both lists, so I would feel great about their odds today, particularly with good matchups. Bellinger is a tricky one, as he was not immediately on the first list, but looking further, he was ranked 25, so he still is in great company plus he has a fantastic matchup grade of A-.
However, for Witt Jr., we have two problems: first, he was not listed on the season-long list and he has a matchup grade of F, indicating that he is facing an incredibly tough matchup tonight.
Therefore, I would drop Witt and dive in and do some research on each of those three players to see if they should make the final cut.
Researching Pitching Props
Moving on to pitchers, the process would be similar, but with some tweaks. I am a fan of taking alternate lines for pitchers as they oftentimes have more value than where their over/under prop is set at. A good place to start is looking at around 5 or 6 strikeouts as that is around the average for many pitchers and can be reached in just a few innings if things go well.
When researching pitchers, first make sure to switch over to the Pitchers tab to see only pitching stats. Another important filter to consider is the Playing Today button, as pitchers generally are only throwing one or two games a week. Let’s look at what is available for today under those conditions.
Immediately you can see there are some pitchers who hit this line nearly every time who are even listed at plus odds! From this list, I would look at a few pitchers, such as:
- Mitch Keller
- Hunter Brown
- Jordan Montgomery
- Tyler Wells
When I am looking at pitchers, the things I put the most value towards are: their season-long performance, who they are playing, and what alt-lines are available.
The first two of those things we can check just on this page, and the last is something helpful to look at in the Stats page.
In our first matchup, we have Keller with a fantastic hit rate, facing off against a mid-table team with some power. Let’s pencil him in, but see if there is more to look at.
Hunter Brown is similarly high, but facing off against one of the weakest teams in the league, so we can definitely feel comfortable with his line.
Montgomery is a little bit lower, but facing off against a decently strong team with a lot of great bats. This would be a great one to look at with more detail to see if we can get value at a lower line.
Finally, we see Tyler Wells who is considerably lower than the rest and he is facing off against one of the strongest offensive teams. With this going against him, I would probably drop him and keep the other three.
From here, we head over to Stats to look at what else each of these players has going on.
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Breaking Down Player Props Using Stats
Now that we have found some lines that we like, it is useful to go through and conduct more thorough research to make sure the bets we are considering have all the right factors going for them.
Breaking Down Pitching Props
Starting off with our pitchers, looking at their stats page can provide you more details, particularly if you want to explore particular options for an alternate line. For instance, looking at Mitch Keller, we see that him recording 5+ Strikeouts has implied odds of -533 on the season, meaning getting this bet at -105 on DraftKings gives us a great edge.
Going through our other players, Hunter Brown provides roughly the same value at his prop as Keller does, so we can add him to our final list. However, wee see that it may make more sense to take Montgomery at 4+ Strikeouts, particularly as he is facing off against a stronger offense.
Breaking Down Hitting Props
Moving back to our hitters, starting off with Acuna, we see that he has a great matchup advantage against right-handed pitchers, so we should have a great edge bet with him.
Looking at Seager, we see much of the same, so we would add him to our list as well. However, when looking at Bellinger, we notice that he performs considerably worse at home, meaning we should consider dropping him from our final list.
Considering Different MLB Parlays and Plays using the Parlay Optimizer
Now comes the exciting part: we have found good value bets that we believe should play well today. After adding everything to our betting slip, we can head over to the Parlay Optimizer to see if there is a strong parlay we could consider placing. When I am at this stage, I like to check to see how the parlay has performed all year, recently, and with other factors such as including home/away filters. Looking at the entire season, we can see that our parlay has implied odds of +192, which is fantastic value given that on FanDuel this is being offered for +640.
However, it is important to check other factors that could be at play. One of the key ones, particularly for our hitters is how they have performed recently, or if a pitcher performs better at home. Filtering this same parlay over the last twenty games and with home and away applied, we see that it has implied odds of -267. Now that is great value! With this information in mind, we can head to the most entertaining step of them all.
Placing your Picks
Head to your sportsbook of choice and add in whatever picks you settle on. Whether you decide to take the whole parlay or break up individual plays or different combinations, you can rest easy knowing that you are placing high-value, well researched bets. With long-term strategies like these, you can expect more success and see your profit grow.
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Get started with us today for the best player prop and sports betting research.
All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
