The sports betting world is full of specific terms that can baffle novice bettors. But don't worry, HOFBets is here to guide you through it all. In this installment, we demystify another key term in sports betting: ‘Juice', also known as ‘Vig' (short for vigorish).
What is ‘Juice' or ‘Vig' in Sports Betting?
‘Juice' or ‘Vig' is essentially the commission that sportsbooks charge for taking your bets. In other types of gambling, this is often referred to as the house edge. It's the way sportsbooks ensure they make a profit regardless of the event's outcome. It's a fundamental term, whether you're making NBA picks and parlays, looking at NFL player props, or betting sports generally.
In simple terms, the ‘juice' is what you pay to play. For any given bet, there is a certain percentage of both sides that is guaranteeing profits for the sportsbook that is accepting the wager.
Many bets are posited as if they are pure 50/50 toss ups, however, these bets almost always will have odds listed at around -110, when a 50% chance of winning should actually be represented by a +100 line. This is the most common and evident example of vig: even though bettors are taking a 50/50 line, they stand to win less than what they wager.
Where does this extra money go? Straight into the pockets of the book. That’s vig.
How can you Calculate the Vig on a Betting Line?
There are a few ways of calculating vig, but they all essentially center around the same strategy we will outline here: first, calculate the implied probability of both sides of a bet, then combine these probabilities and subtract 100% – whatever is left is the vig.
To do this, we first need to convert our odds into implied probabilities. You can do this by following these two steps for whether your odds are positive or negative:
- Positive Odds Conversion: Use the formula Implied Probability = 100 / (American odds + 100). For example, for American odds of +200, the implied probability is 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33%.
- Negative Odds Conversion: Use the formula Implied Probability = |American odds| / (|American odds| + 100). For example, for American odds of -150, the implied probability is 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%.
Once you have done this, add your probabilities together and subtract 100%, like this:
Probability 1% + Probability 2% – 100% = Vig
Now that we understand the math behind it, let’s look at a real life example.
An Example of ‘Vig':
Let’s take an upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and the Saint Louis Cardinals as our example.
Taking the odds on the far right that are for moneyline bets, we see that the Cardinals are narrowly favored against the Cubs in this game, but both teams still have negative odds. First, let’s convert the odds to implied probabilities.
Chicago Cubs Implied Probability of Winning: 105 / (105 + 100) = 51.21%
St. Louis Cardinals Implied Probability of Winning: 115 / (115 + 100) = 53.48%
Then combine and subtract 100% to find the vig.
51.21% + 53.48% – 100% = 4.69%
Even though this bet is close to 50/50, the book is still going to profit either way!
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The Impact of ‘Juice':
Understanding the concept of ‘juice' is vital to being a successful bettor as it influences your overall profitability. The juice impacts every wager, whether it's MLB picks and parlays, NFL parlays, NBA parlays, or any sports betting analytics. Over time, changes in ‘juice’ can help or hamper your returns depending on which way they go. Let’s examine some strategies for dealing with this impact.
Strategies to Deal with ‘Juice':
While vig is unavoidable, there are ways to minimize its impact:
- Line Shopping: Different sportsbooks can offer different juice on the same bets. Always shop around for the best lines. If one book is offering less juice, always take the better odds.
- Focus on Value: Look for bets where you believe the payout outweighs the risk, taking the juice into account. Hall of Fame Bet’s software is designed to do this exactly.
- Bankroll Management: Be mindful of the juice's cumulative effect on your bankroll over the long term. Manage your bankroll accordingly.
In conclusion, the term ‘juice' or ‘vig’ is crucial in the world of sports betting, affecting every bet and every outcome. Understanding it is key to becoming a more strategic bettor, whether you're considering player props, parlay picks for today, or any other types of wagers.
Stay tuned for our next post where we'll explore more sports betting terminologies. Share this post if you found it helpful and let's continue learning together. Happy betting!
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All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
