When it comes to sports betting, the thrill of combining skill, knowledge, and a bit of luck is unparalleled, especially in the dynamic world of NFL parlays. Parlays offer the chance for larger payouts and bring an extra layer of excitement to NFL weekends. As you gear up for this weekend's games, let's dive into the essentials of NFL parlay betting, highlighting a two-leg parlay as a prime example. This guide will not only educate but also equip you with strategies for successful parlay betting in the NFL.
Strategies for NFL Parlay Betting Success:
- Selective Betting: Choose each leg of your parlay carefully. In a two-leg parlay, ensure you have strong confidence in both selections.
- Balanced Risk and Reward: While large parlays offer massive payouts, they also come with higher risks. A two-leg parlay is a great way to balance this dynamic.
- Correlated Bets: In NFL parlays, selecting correlated outcomes (like betting on a team to cover the spread and the total points to go over) can increase your chances of winning.
- Flat Betting Approach: Maintain a consistent betting amount across your parlays to effectively manage your bankroll.
- Utilizing Tools: Platforms like Hall of Fame Bets provide analytics and tools like the Parlay Optimizer to craft informed parlays based on data and alternate lines.
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Finding Winning NFL Parlays Using Deep Stats
Combining powerful data analytics with a simple user interface to make all your betting research easier, Hall of Fame Bets is the premier sports betting analytics research platform. Using our platform, you can seamlessly filter through data for teams and players alike to provide insight into past performances in order to find value in matchups and make smarter bets. When it comes to parlays, Hall of Fame Bets is one of the premier research tools for researching and crafting them, particularly through use of the Deep Stats.
Utilizing Deep Stats, you are able to not just find, but truly explore any potential legs when putting together NFL Parlays. Below, we will share an example of how we were able to find and justify the legs of a parlay for this upcoming weekend of NFL playoff action.
Deebo Samuel u3.5 Rush Attempts (-140) (FD)
The first leg of our parlay is for Deebo Samuel to rush under 3.5 times. In a matchup where the 49ers are heavily favored, the talented players on their roster are going to have lofty projections for the most part. Taking this line, we can examine the prop on his Deep Stats page to gain further insight into his performances across the season. Looking below, we can see that Samuel has been rushing the ball with less frequency over the last 10 games, only going over this line a single time. This shows that over this time span, the utility player Samuel has had a 90% hit rate for this prop. Off the mark, this looks like a great value bet, as the offered odds of -140 are considerably higher than what his implied odds are. However, it is always useful to explore further to figure out if there is more than meets the eye when it comes to the bet.
Another useful area to explore is the matchup box, which provides context into how upcoming opponents have fared. Checking at Samuel’s next opponent, the Green Bay Packers, you can see that they have been poor against the run – ranking 28th in the entire league. However, they have been particularly poor against running backs, meaning that the 49ers will be likely to feature Christian McCaffery with greater frequency than Samuel.
To test this theory, we can return to Samuel’s Deep Stats page to explore how he has fared against opponents similar to the Packers. When filtering by below-average defenses such as the Packers, you can see that Samuel has struggled quite a bit. On the year when faced up against these defenses, Samuel has only gone over this line a single time. Utilizing all this powerful feature has to offer, it looks like we have found a great first leg.
Rashod Bateman o1.5 Receptions (-245) (FD)
For the next line in our parlay, we will demonstrate another thing that Deep Stats is great for: finding good alternate lines to add to parlays. Rashod Bateman, wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens, currently has his total receptions line set at 2.5. Looking at his performances over the last 10 games, it is clear that he has struggled to break this line with much frequency. In this stretch, he has only managed to go over this number three times, giving a poor likelihood of this hitting.
However, by going back to the matchup box, we can see that it still may be a good idea to explore his numbers further. In addition to the Ravens having one of the best offenses in the entire NFL, the Texans have a very weak secondary. Houston is ranked as the 24th passing defense in the league, giving up well over 200 yards passing per game. Therefore, it still may be a good idea to play Bateman, but perhaps at a different number.
Looking further at bets being offered, we can find a great value for Bateman at 2+ receptions. Looking at his numbers from earlier, we see an incredibly different story with this new threshold, clearly indicating that Bateman has great potential of hitting this line. Over his last 10 games, Bateman has hit this 8 times, giving him a fantastic 80% hit rate and immense value over the offered odds of -245.
Further, it can always be useful to look at prior performances to confirm our hypothesis. In his earlier game against the Texans this year, Bateman had a solid showing, recording 3 catches. Though this is far from a guarantee, it is helpful knowing that he has done it before when wondering if he can do it this weekend.
Now that we have explored our two props we would like to parlay, we can look further at the numbers by putting them through the Parlay Optimizer. Looking over the past five games, this bet has hit in a wonderful 75% of games, giving it implied odds of -300 compared to the value FanDuel is offering for it at +140.
Looking at a longer stretch of games, over the last 10, this bet has still hit with incredible frequency, coming in at 69%, giving it implied odds of -224.
Even looking at the entire year, it is clear that this is a high value bet: on the year it has hit in 59% of games, giving it implied odds of -142.
Conclusion:
Parlay betting adds an intriguing layer of complexity and potential reward to sports betting. By understanding its workings and adopting effective strategies, you can unlock a whole new dimension to your sports betting journey, especially when it comes to NFL Parlays.
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All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
